Friday, October 9, 2026 | Volume 8, Issue 41
Fall planting season is here. The sunflowers are starting to bloom, the peppers are in the ground, and I put in a couple of solar lights. Tomorrow I'm off to the Arizona Worm Farm for my medicinal herbs class. The best news: Bingley's nose is doing much better.
This weekend in the Valley
Four Peaks Brewing Oktoberfest, Friday through Sunday, Tempe Beach Park. Details
Arizona State Fair, Thursday through Sunday, through Nov 1, Arizona State Fairgrounds. Details
Glowing Pumpkins, through Nov 1, Riverwalk at Rawhide, Chandler. Details
Merchantile Market Fall Fest, Saturday and Sunday, WestWorld of Scottsdale. Details
Spookie Stripes Safari, through Oct 31, Phoenix Zoo. Details
The Valley by the numbers
September 2026 for Greater Phoenix single-family homes, against September of last year:
- Median sale price: about $475,000 (down 2.1%)
- Average days on market: 77 days (79 last year)
- Months of supply: 4.3 (4.0 last year)
- Inventory: up 6.7%
- New listings: down 3.7%
- Pending sales: down 40.1%
- Closed sales: down 4.9%
Phoenix REALTORS board president Sammy Glassman said affordability today is often more about the monthly payment than the purchase price alone.
What this means for you
Buyers: More homes are for sale than a year ago, and contract signings are down about 40%. That gives you room to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs.
Sellers: Closed sales are down less than 5%, but pending sales are down about 40%, so fewer buyers are signing contracts. Price it right the first time.
Small investors: More inventory and slower contracts mean time to negotiate. Run your numbers at today's rates, not the rate you hope for later.
Source: Phoenix REALTORS, September 2026 data, via AZ Big Media, Oct 8.
Friday mortgage talk
Rates were still high this week, but Thursday brought the biggest one-day drop in three months, according to Mortgage News Daily. Their 30-year index fell 0.09 to 7.50%, and the 15-year sits at 7.17%. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year at 7.40%, up from 7.28% last week and 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year averaged 6.73%.
Michael Chalker's Daily Temp Report (SFMC Home Lending) shows these national averages, not anyone's quote:
- 30-year conforming: 7.424% (down 0.009)
- 30-year jumbo: 7.374% (down 0.154)
- 30-year FHA: 7.176%
- 30-year VA: 7.088%
- 30-year USDA: 7.120%
- 15-year conforming: 6.735% (down 0.071)
The 30-year conforming rate has ranged from 6.678% to 7.458% over the past 30 days.
The September jobs report added only 29,000 jobs against 84,000 expected, and the odds of a Fed rate hike on October 27 to 28 dropped from 64% to about 22% (Real Estate News, Oct 2). Rates still rose afterward, so I would not plan around a quick drop.
From the lenders. Jaime Kinman at Guaranteed Rate described the market this week as "higher for longer." Bonds improved a little, but she expects rates to stay volatile and tied to each new economic report. Her advice for buyers is to look past the rate alone. Purchase price, seller concessions, buydowns, and the loan structure all change the monthly payment.
She also flagged the new UAD 3.6 appraisal report, mandatory for reports first submitted on or after November 2, 2026 (Freddie Mac). It carries a lot more property detail. Three things she wants agents to watch: the condition and quality ratings (C1 to C6 and Q1 to Q6), red flags such as living area discrepancies, property eligibility problems, and solar or PPA obligations, and the wording used for condition and repairs. If you have a property you're unsure about, I can walk through it with you.
What is your home worth this month?
Get a free monthly snapshot of your home's value. It is an algorithm-based estimate, not an appraisal, and I can refine it with a custom market analysis when you want a closer number.
From my week
I spent most of it getting a listing ready for photos for an out-of-town client: boxing, staging, and adding curb appeal. I also took a buyer to look at a couple of houses and introduced them to Buc-ee's. I avoided all the treats. Well, I may have had two roasted pecans out of their bag, but that's it.
I also did some vetting and interviewing for a client and friend who wants to buy on the East Coast. I think I found someone they can vibe with!
Shoutouts
We lost a really neat lady a few weeks ago. If you're around Peoria, give her estate sale a look this weekend. It runs Friday and Saturday, 8 AM to 1 PM, cash only. See the sale
Look who's back! Three-month-old Athena has been returned and is once again available for adoption, according to Stealing Hearts Rescue.
Adopt Athena through Stealing Hearts Rescue
New builds
Fourteen new home picks came through my Showing New feed this week. Every link opens on my branded site.
Quick move-in homes
- 22801 E Stirrup St, Juniper
- 8083 N 184th Ave, Lennon, Waddell, White Tank Foothills, Meritage Homes
- 26969 W Melinda Lane, Traverse, Buckeye, Sun City Festival, Del Webb
- 8037 W Granada Road, Emerald, Phoenix, Seasons at Baker Farms, Richmond American
Grand openings
- Shadow Ridge, Tolleson, Pulte Homes
- Portfolio at Bella Rosa, Phoenix, Richmond American
- Vista at Highlands, Buckeye, K. Hovnanian Homes
- The Vistas Collection at Silver Cross, Florence, Century Communities
Featured communities
- Ladera Trails Passage Collection, Queen Creek, Taylor Morrison
- The Ridge at Victory, Buckeye, David Weekley Homes
- Estates at Asante, Surprise, Richmond American
- Legacy Place, Glendale, Meritage Homes
Promotions
Don't forget to take me with you and let me register you before you visit a new build model home community or register on their site (feel free to browse mine though), so I can translate New Build contracts (8 zillion pages on an ipad isn't conducive to major research) represent you, have your back, get you the best perks and incentives and fight to make sure you get all agreed-upon items on time and on budget!
Weekend freeway closures (ADOT)
- Eastbound Loop 101 (Agua Fria Freeway) closed between 75th and 51st avenues, 10 PM Fri Oct 9 to 5 AM Mon Oct 12, for widening. Ramps closed at Bell Road, Union Hills Drive, and the Texas U-turn ramp near Union Hills Drive. Detour: Union Hills Drive to 51st or 35th avenues.
- Eastbound Loop 202 (Santan Freeway) closed between Arizona Avenue and Gilbert Road, 10 PM Fri Oct 9 to 5 AM Mon Oct 12, for widening. On-ramps closed at Price, Dobson, and Alma School roads, and the southbound Loop 101 ramp to the eastbound Loop 202 HOV ramp. Detour: Chandler Boulevard or Germann Road.
- Northbound State Route 51 closed between Indian School Road and Glendale Avenue, 9 PM Fri Oct 9 to 5 AM Mon Oct 12, for pavement improvement. On-ramps closed at McDowell and Thomas roads. Detour: 16th or 24th streets.
- State Route 347 narrowed to one lane each way between the City of Maricopa and Casa Blanca Road for paving, 8 PM Fri to 10 AM Sat and 8 PM Sat to 10 AM Sun.
Times are subject to change. Real-time conditions: AZ511.gov, the az511 app, or 511. See ADOT's full advisory
This week's real estate headlines
Arizona and around the Valley
Casa Grande's planning commission approved a conditional use permit 6-1 on Oct 1 for a 954-acre data center campus south of Montgomery Road. (AZBEX, Oct 7)
Mesa held a public hearing on Park North, townhomes at Guadalupe and Power roads. The outcome was not confirmed. (AZBEX, Oct 2)
Tempe is moving forward with plans for an affordable housing and fire station site. (AZBEX, Oct 7)
National
- September jobs came in at 29,000 against 84,000 expected. (Real Estate News, Oct 2)
- Property tax delinquency reached its highest level since 2017. (HousingWire, about Oct 4)
- Mortgage purchase applications were down 15% from a year ago and refinance applications down 56% for the week ending Oct 2. (Mortgage Bankers Association)
Where do you want to live? How do you want to live?
Call or text me at 480.818.9391. Ruby, my virtual assistant and office manager, is at 623-255-4485. You can also email Hello@DeDeForwood.com or visit dedeforwood.com and heartofphx.com.
See you next Friday,
DeDe
DeDe Forwood, REALTOR® | HomeSmart
Helping buyers and sellers navigate the Valley of the Sun with honesty, patience, and zero manufactured urgency.
Let's TalkDeDe Forwood is a REALTOR® with HomeSmart, and this content follows the Fair Housing Act and the REALTOR® Code of Ethics. Nothing in this guide should be read as, or used for, steering based on race, color, religion, sex, national origin, familial status, or disability. Equal Housing Opportunity.