Heart of PHX, Vol. 8, Issue 42

It's been a heckuva week! We got some RAIN! My plants are super happy. I am not.

You know when you walk into a room and hear a drip? Your heart drops! I looked up in my dining room and saw a GIANT bubble with cold water dripping from it. Yep, the paint was holding in the leak! I stabbed the bubble with a steak knife, traded buckets, and texted my roofer a "Houston, we have a problem" text with the bubble ceiling photo.

He was out first thing in the morning and was proud to say, "It's not me!" (He replaced our roof last year after the microburst.) He went in the attic and found a break in the HVAC condensate line, and he re-sealed all my roof openings too. Then I called Patrick, my HVAC guy. Turns out our roof-mounted unit sends its condensate line into the house, along the attic through my dining room and my second bedroom, and out the side of the house. (Great design flaw, builder!) Patrick fixed me up in a jiffy and re-routed the line with gravity on the roof, and we're back in business. Now some drywall repair, and I'll have my dining room back!

I also got some diagnostics for a relative, and I'm thrilled there's a path forward now. I ALMOST listed a friend's house starting today, but they're holding off on their decision to move. I'm happy my friends might be staying a bit (and glad I don't have to keep open house snacks in the house. PHEW!).

I went to a fermentation class at the Arizona Worm Farm to learn how to make sauerkraut and kimchi!

As you know, I'm an introvert, and being waterboarded with Drano is more appealing to me than public speaking. But I've gotten involved with my HOA as a volunteer on the events committee, and... I called BINGO this week! Not bad for a girl who hates public speaking and has a speech impediment! Pretty proud of myself!

I put a lot of work into my Valley events page, and I update it every Thursday, so PLEASE go check out what I've found and curated for you! Here are a few picks for this weekend:

Phoenix Greek Festival, Friday through Sunday, 1973 E Maryland Ave, Phoenix. Details

AZ Taco Fest, Saturday and Sunday, 11 AM to 6 PM, Salt River Fields, Scottsdale. Details

Haunts on High Street, Saturday, 4 to 11 PM, High Street, Phoenix. Details

Desert Foothills Book Festival, Saturday, 10 AM to 3 PM, Holland Community Center, Scottsdale. Details

Arizona State Fair, Thursday through Sunday, through Nov 1, Arizona State Fairgrounds. Details

See all my Valley events

Last 30 days in Maricopa County, single-family homes, Sept 16 to Oct 15, 2026, against the same days in 2025:

Third quarter, Maricopa County, all home types: median sale price $467,500 (down 0.3%), 84 days on market (same as last year), 4.2 months of supply (up 12.9%), and sellers received 94.8% of list price.

Rentals in September: 2,037 leases closed (down 7.8%), 5,112 rentals available (down 16.7%), and 44 average days on market.

Prices are holding steady, but far fewer buyers are signing contracts than a year ago.

What this means for you

Buyers: About as many homes are coming on the market as last year, and contracts are down sharply, so you have room to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs.

Sellers: Prices are holding, but homes are taking about 84 days and sellers are getting just under 95% of list price, so price it right the first time.

Small investors: There are fewer rentals on the market than a year ago, and they are leasing in about 44 days, so well-priced rentals are moving.

Sources: Flexmls (ARMLS) Year Over Year Comparison, run Oct 16, 2026; ARMLS Quarterly Housing Summary, Q3 2026; ARMLS Rental Market Statistics Summary, September 2026.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey held the 30-year fixed at 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from last week and up from 6.27% a year ago. The 15-year averaged 6.71%.

Michael Chalker's Daily Temp Report (SFMC Home Lending, Oct 16) shows these national averages, not anyone's quote:

• 30-year conforming: 7.378% (up 0.017)
• 30-year jumbo: 7.543% (up 0.048)
• 30-year FHA: 7.202% (up 0.021)
• 30-year VA: 7.035% (down 0.075)
• 30-year USDA: 7.177% (down 0.044)
• 15-year conforming: 6.807% (up 0.085)

The 30-year conforming rate has ranged from 6.744% to 7.458% over the past 30 days.

September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year ago, above forecast, and the odds of a Fed rate hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting rose to 37% from 22% (CME FedWatch, via Real Estate News, Oct 14). Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index still fell to 7.33% on Thursday, a three-week low, so nobody should plan around a quick drop, but good days do happen.

From the lenders. Jaime Kinman at Rate called Wednesday "a surprising turn for mortgage rates." The inflation report first pushed mortgage pricing the wrong way, then worries about rising gas prices and slower consumer spending sent money from stocks into bonds, and mortgage bonds recovered their losses. Her takeaway: volatility isn't going away, so having a financing strategy and staying connected on rates matters more than ever.

This one is a sad one. Friends had an estate sale this weekend to clear out their mom's belongings. It's a hard thing to have to do. If you ever find yourself there, I have a good list of estate sale companies that do a good job. Call or text me and I'll share it.

A big thank you to my preferred vendors. My roofer and Patrick at PAM Air jumped into action when I was crying about my ceiling leak. Michael Chalker at SFMC Home Lending also jumped into action to help a client who is buying out of state get his ducks in a row, after I vetted agents there and gave him three to pick from. Consummate professionals, all of them. I am so proud of the vendor relationships I have built going into my ninth year in real estate. Being able to share these professional craftsmen with my friends, family, and clients is an honor.

I thought I'd have a featured listing for you this week, but I'm happy to say my friends may not be moving yet. My teammates got theirs under contract too. So if you see something you want to see, or you'd like an open house list (go test their cookies!), reach out to me.

1. This morning's economic numbers (September data, released today):

• Import prices: 1.1% (forecast 0.8%, prior 0.7%)
• Industrial production, month over month: 0.7% (forecast 0.4%, prior 0%)
• Capacity utilization: 76.9% (forecast 76.5%, prior 76.3%)
• Monthly Treasury balance: -$27 billion (forecast -$29 billion, prior -$167 billion)

2. Elections! I'm researching judges and propositions and getting my vote on. The general election is Tuesday, November 3.

3. I'm also working on a website, automation, and membership for an awesome self-managed HOA. I'm volunteering my techiness and starting a little business from it. More about that later!

Twelve new home picks came through my Showing New feed this week, plus two builder promotions. Every link opens on my branded site.

Quick move-in homes

4220 S 257th Drive (Vervain) Hayden Estates, Buckeye, Pulte Homes $424,990, 5 bed, 3 bath

4402 N 203rd Lane (Clyde III) Four Seasons Victory at Verrado Cottages, Buckeye, K. Hovnanian's Four Seasons $472,200, 2 bed, 2 bath

1083 W Haynes Way (Amber Plus) Blossom Rock Signature Series, Apache Junction, Meritage Homes $594,990, 4 bed, 3 bath

4249 E Bethena Street (Textiler with Loft) Seaboard at Cooley Station, Gilbert, Fulton Homes $815,335, 3 bed, 2.5 bath

Grand openings

Vistara Chandler, K. Hovnanian Homes

Retreat at La Jolla Vista Goodyear, Richmond American

Villas II Scottsdale, Camelot Homes From $2,419,900 to $3,311,900

The Vistas Collection at Silver Cross Florence, Century Communities

Featured communities

The Highlands Collection at Skyline Village San Tan Valley, Century Communities From $319,990 to $429,580

The Villages at North Copper Canyon, Valley Series Surprise, Risewell Homes From $392,990 to $442,990

Baker Farms Phoenix, Mattamy Homes From $399,990 to $479,999

Sereno Canyon, Enclave Collection Scottsdale, Toll Brothers From $1,400,000 to $2,350,000

Builder promotions

Rancho Mirage Estate Series Maricopa, Meritage Homes Low monthly payments on select homes, for a limited time

Sentiero at Windrose Waddell, David Weekley Homes Coffee at the community while you learn about their building process

Don't forget to take me with you and let me register you before you visit a new build model home community or register on their site (feel free to browse mine though), so I can translate New Build contracts (8 zillion pages on an ipad isn't conducive to major research) represent you, have your back, get you the best perks and incentives and fight to make sure you get all agreed-upon items on time and on budget!

Browse new builds with me

• SR 347 narrowed to one lane northbound between the City of Maricopa and Casa Blanca Road from 8 p.m. Friday to 8 a.m. Saturday (Oct. 17) and 8 p.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday (Oct. 18) for paving.

Schedules are subject to change due to inclement weather or other factors. Real-time highway conditions: AZ511.gov, the az511 app, or call 511.

See ADOT's full advisory

Arizona and around the Valley

ARMLS listings can now show on Google. ARMLS joined HouseCanary's Google Listings Program, so brokerages that opt in can have active listings appear in Google home searches with the listing agent's name and contact info. It is free for all 38,000 ARMLS subscribers. (Real Estate News, Oct 13)

Attorney General Kris Mayes asked the Arizona Corporation Commission to investigate whether about $587 million in costs tied to large users like data centers were shifted onto other APS customers from 2023 to 2025. APS is seeking a $608.7 million rate increase, and APS and Commission staff dispute the analysis. (Arizona Attorney General, Oct 9)

Phoenix stepped up enforcement at the Ahwatukee data center site near 48th Street and Thistle Landing Drive. The contractor agreed to keep lights off and gates closed before legal hours, move the construction entrance away from homes, and install sound meters. Winter work hours (7 AM to 7 PM weekdays) start today. (Ahwatukee Foothills News, Oct 14)

Phoenix added about 21,000 jobs in the first eight months of 2026, and two warehouses over 1 million square feet are due along the Loop 303 corridor. (AZ Big Media, Oct 15)

Halo Vista, the 3,721-acre master plan around TSMC at I-17 and Loop 303, asked to raise some residential height limits from 60 to 120 feet and allow trade school and college uses. The outcome was not reported yet. (AZBEX, Oct 9)

Reminder: Maricopa County's first-half property tax payment is due by 5 PM Monday, November 2, with no penalty if paid by then. Bills were delayed this year. (azfamily, Sept 30)

National

• September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year ago, and the odds of an October Fed rate hike rose to 37%. (Real Estate News, Oct 14)
• Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million pace, with a $417,500 median. (Real Estate News, Oct 13)
• Mortgage purchase applications fell 4% in the week ending Oct 9 and were 16% below a year ago. (MBA via HousingWire, Oct 14)
• Senators Booker and Warren asked the FTC to look at portal "contact agent" buttons that may route buyers to paid partner agents. (Real Estate News, Oct 15)

I'm so grateful to have friends, family, clients, vendors, and all you awesome people reading my rambling dribble every week. It warms my cold little defective heart ❤️🤣

Where do you want to live? How do you want to live?

Call or text me at 480.818.9391. Ruby, my virtual assistant and office manager, is at 623-255-4485. You can also email Hello@DeDeForwood.com or visit dedeforwood.com and heartofphx.com.

Past issues are here: Heart of PHX archive.

See you next Friday,

DeDe