Heart of PHX, Vol. 8, Issue 43

What a wild and wacky weather week it was! I hope everyone is making progress on the cleanup, and to those of you dealing with insurance adjusters, I'm sending patience and a quick resolution.

We had a pretty good week. I had a nice steak for my birthday, and the dogs got presents. I called Bingo again for my fogey friends, got a couple of vegetable starts in the ground, and I'm excited about my Pickling Class tomorrow at the Arizona Worm Farm! And Darci is sad to announce that her backyard dog pool has closed for the season.

I also got my first Canna Lily bloom! This girl made it through the summer, and she's rewarding me with this beautiful bloom decorating my patio!

Fine Art and Wine Festival, Friday through Sunday, 10 AM to 5 PM, Stagecoach Village, Cave Creek. Over 100 fine artists, wine tasting, and live music. Free admission and parking. Details

Día de los Muertos Festival, Saturday and Sunday, times vary, Mesa Arts Center. Free, with live performances, altars, and a street party featuring Lila Downs on Saturday night. Details

USA TODAY Wine and Food Experience, Saturday, 12 to 4 PM, High Street, Phoenix. Details

Kamayan Fest, Saturday, 10 AM to 8 PM, Solano Park, Phoenix. A Filipino communal feast with live music. Free admission. Details

Arizona State Fair, Thursday through Sunday, through Nov 1, Arizona State Fairgrounds. Details

See all my Valley events

Last 30 days in Maricopa County, single-family homes, Sept 23 to Oct 22, 2026, compared with the same days in 2025:

Prices are holding steady, but contract signings are down by nearly half from a year ago. Nationally, pending home sales hit a record low in September, and the West fell hardest (NAR, Oct 20).

What this means for you

Buyers: About as many homes are coming on the market as last year, but far fewer people are signing contracts, so you have room to ask for price cuts, repairs, or help with a rate buydown.

Sellers: Prices are holding, but there are fewer buyers, so price it right from day one and make sure every agent can see it on the MLS.

Small investors: Builders are offering incentives right now, so new homes can be worth a look as rentals; run the numbers with the incentives included.

Source: Flexmls (ARMLS) Year Over Year Comparison, run Oct 23, 2026.

Finally, a little good news for mortgage rates! Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% the week before and the first weekly drop since August. The 15-year averaged 6.68%.

Michael Chalker's Daily Temp Report (Service First Mortgage, Oct 23) shows these national averages, not anyone's quote:

• 30-year conforming: 7.304% (down 0.022)
• 30-year jumbo: 7.609% (up 0.279)
• 30-year FHA: 7.113% (down 0.022)
• 30-year VA: 6.958% (up 0.004)
• 30-year USDA: 7.087% (down 0.177)
• 15-year conforming: 6.567% (up 0.050)

The 30-year conforming rate has ranged from 6.805% to 7.458% over the past 30 days.

Michael explains that since last week's Producer Price Index report, the 10-year Treasury yield has generally moved lower, and mortgage rates tend to follow it. The report showed inflation running hotter than expected, which would normally push rates up, but investors kept buying bonds, and mortgage rates improved to their lowest levels in about a month.

Before we break out the party hats, one good week doesn't make a trend. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27 to 28, and a hold is widely expected, but the CME FedWatch tool shows close to a 75% chance of another hike in December (Real Estate News, Oct 22). As Michael puts it, the bond market can change its mind faster than Arizona weather. If you'd like to see what today's rates mean for your buying power or a refinance, reach out to Michael at 480-470-1932 or sfmc.com/loan-officer/michaelchalker.

I have a client fighting termites, a client doing some cleanup after the storms, and an upcoming client fighting with a neighbor in a way that could hurt the sale. It's all fun and games until it isn't, so I'm putting on my diplomat hat.

I'm also participating in a doctoral student's project and was at HomeSmart HQ this week (hi, front desk girls!), where I saw this very odd looking hummingbird hogging all the lunch, much to the chagrin of the ACTUAL hummingbird. Just another week in the wild, wacky world of residential real estate!

This week's shoutout goes to the Desert Botanical Garden's 50th Annual Plant Sale. A shopping experience with a view?? Count us in! It's happening now through Oct. 26, open daily from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. It's a special five-day fall event featuring desert-adapted plants, expert advice, and everything you need to refresh your landscape. Don't miss the Garden's only Plant Sale this year! Free, with no tickets or reservations required.

Photo: Desert Botanical Garden

Twelve new home picks came through my Showing New feed this week, plus two builder promotions. Every link opens on my branded site.

Quick move-in homes

20627 N 225th Drive (Plan 4001) Frontera, Surprise, Risewell Homes $442,990, 3 bed, 2.5 bath

10291 S Blackjack Trail (Nicola) Fusion at Blossom Rock, Apache Junction, Richmond American $490,995, 3 bed, 2.5 bath

18159 W La Senda Drive (Iris) North Copper Canyon, Surprise, Ashton Woods $449,990, 4 bed, 2 bath

10031 S Gidiyup Trail (Lark) Blossom Rock Reserve, Apache Junction, Meritage Homes $594,990, 4 bed, 3 bath

Grand openings

Retreat at La Jolla Vista Goodyear, Richmond American

Alamar Avondale, DRB Homes From $433,990 to $546,990

Vista at Highlands Buckeye, K. Hovnanian Homes

The Orchard at Olea Queen Creek, KB Home

Featured communities

Estates at Haciendas at White Peak Peoria, Richmond American From $699,990 to $804,995

Apache Farms Buckeye, DRB Homes From $361,990 to $411,990

Viridian Phoenix, Camelot Homes From $1,574,900 to $1,654,900

Bethany Grove Glendale, Beazer Homes From $489,990

Builder promotions

Solstice at Terraza, San Tan Valley, Tri Pointe Homes: an FHA 30-year fixed rate of 5.49% (6.746% APR) plus up to $7,500 in closing costs on select homes.

Artisan at Asante Encore Collection, Surprise, Taylor Morrison: a conventional fixed rate with up to $8,000 toward closing costs on eligible quick move-in homes. Full terms are on the builder pages.

Don't forget to take me with you and let me register you before you visit a new build model home community or register on their site (feel free to browse mine though), so I can translate New Build contracts (8 zillion pages on an ipad isn't conducive to major research) represent you, have your back, get you the best perks and incentives and fight to make sure you get all agreed-upon items on time and on budget!

Browse new builds on my site

• Northbound SR 51 closed between Glendale Avenue and Shea Boulevard from 9 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23, to 5 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for pavement improvement project. Northbound SR 51 on-ramps from Indian School Road to Northern Avenue closed. Detour: westbound Glendale Avenue to northbound Seventh Street to northbound Cave Creek Road to eastbound Cactus Road to access SR 51 north of the closure.
• Eastbound Loop 202 (Santan Freeway) closed between Gilbert and Williams Field roads from 10 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23, to 5 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for widening project. Eastbound Loop 202 on-ramps from Arizona Avenue to Val Vista Drive closed. Detour: eastbound Chandler Boulevard/Williams Field Road, or eastbound Germann Road to Higley Road to connect with eastbound Loop 202 beyond the closure. Westbound off-ramp at Price Road closed from 10 p.m. Friday to 9 a.m. Saturday (Oct. 24); detour: westbound off-ramp at Dobson Road.
• Westbound Loop 202 (Santan Freeway) off-ramp at Arizona Avenue closed from 10 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23, to 5 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for bridge work. Detour: westbound off-ramps at McQueen or Alma School roads.
• Eastbound Loop 101 (Agua Fria Freeway) closed between 75th and 51st avenues from 10 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23, to 5 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for widening project. Eastbound Loop 101 on-ramps at Bell Road and Union Hills Drive closed. Detour: eastbound Union Hills Drive to connect with eastbound Loop 101 at 51st or 35th avenues.
• Eastbound Loop 303 closed between I-17 and 43rd Avenue from 10 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23, to 5 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for bridge construction. Detour: northbound 43rd Avenue to eastbound Dove Valley Road to connect with I-17.
• Northbound SR 347 narrowed to one lane between the City of Maricopa and Casa Blanca Road from 6 p.m. Friday to 8 a.m. Saturday (Oct. 24), 6 p.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday (Oct. 25), and 6 p.m. Sunday to 4 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for paving project.
• Southbound SR 347 narrowed to one lane between the City of Maricopa and Casa Blanca Road from 6 p.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday (Oct. 25) and 8 p.m. Sunday to 7 a.m. Monday (Oct. 26) for paving project.

Restriction schedules are subject to change due to inclement weather or other factors. Real-time highway conditions: AZ511.gov, the az511 app, or call 511.

See ADOT's full advisory

Arizona and around the Valley

Arizona joins the fight over Colorado River cuts. Arizona joined Nevada's lawsuit against a federal plan that would cut Arizona's water by 760,000 acre-feet a year in 2027 and 2028, including a 50% cut to the Central Arizona Project, which serves Phoenix and Tucson. Water supply decides where new homes can be built. (azfamily, Oct 16)

ARMLS sues to defend its listing rules. ARMLS and five other MLSs filed suit in federal court on October 21, asking a judge to declare their listing "cooperation rules" legal and to bar Compass from suing them over those rules. For now, ARMLS rules are unchanged. (Real Estate News, Oct 22)

TSMC moves faster in north Phoenix. TSMC's second Phoenix fab is built and now expects volume production in the third quarter of 2027, slightly ahead of schedule. (AZ Big Media, Oct 22)

More homes could come to Laveen. Phoenix is weighing annexing about 28 acres of county land at Dobbins Road and 32nd Avenue, where zoning allows up to 489 apartments, condos, or townhomes. (AZBEX, Oct 20)

$70 million for Roosevelt Row. A 12-story mixed-use tower and a dining project in the historic Stoddard-Harmon House will add 125 new residences. Groundbreaking is November 6. (AZ Big Media, Oct 22)

ADOT wants your input on I-10. ADOT is asking for feedback on reshaping I-10 from the Deck Park Tunnel to the I-17 split near Sky Harbor. (azfamily, Oct 16)

Property tax reminder. Maricopa County's first-half property tax payment is due by 5 PM Monday, November 2, with no penalty if paid by then. (azfamily, Sept 30)

National

• Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September to a record low, and the West fell hardest. (NAR, Oct 20)
• Builder confidence fell to 29, the lowest in more than 14 years. (NAHB, October)
• A White House order directs FHFA to pilot canceling mortgage insurance once borrowers have enough equity, and tells the VA and USDA to lower rates on their loans. Details still have to be written. (Real Estate News, Oct 22)
• The national median sale price dipped 2% to $368,000 in the third quarter, but median-priced homes were still unaffordable on typical wages in 98% of counties studied. (Real Estate News, Oct 21, ATTOM data)

Thanks for reading, friends!

Where do you want to live? How do you want to live?

I'm always here to help. Call or text me at 480.818.9391, or reach Ruby, my virtual assistant and office manager, at 623-255-4485. Email Hello@DeDeForwood.com, and visit dedeforwood.com and heartofphx.com.

Past issues are here: Heart of PHX archive.

See you next Friday,

DeDe