Heart of PHX, Vol. 8, Issue 46

Garden Club, Appraisals, and a Hockey Crash Course Friday, November 13, 2026  |  Volume 8, Issue 46

What I've been up to

I started a garden club for my community this week!  We visited a few local garden stands, and Saralee won the door prize, some pretty fall mums.  Want to find the garden stand closest to you?  Look it up at gardenexchangestands.org.  We followed Growing in the Garden's November list for the low desert and got our gardens ready for pretty season.

The dogs got a couple of extra walks while we dropped off and picked up their favorite neighbor at the hospital.

I went a little crazy with greeting cards this week.  I'm a cardaholic.  If you're tired of nothing but bills and ads in your mailbox, make sure I have your address, and I'll randomly send you some joy!  Share your address here.

And Little Brother landed a big gig in sports broadcasting this week.  I spent a LONG time on the phone teaching him everything I know about... hockey!

This weekend in the Valley

Fall Fountain Festival of Fine Arts & Crafts, Fri 11/13 to Sun 11/15, times vary, Avenue of the Fountains, Fountain Hills. Details Discover India Festival, Sat 11/14, 11 am to 6 pm, Scottsdale Civic Center. Details Phoenix Pizza Fest, Sat 11/14 and Sun 11/15, times vary, Margaret T. Hance Park, Phoenix. Details Hayden Flour Mills Bread Fest, Sun 11/15, 11 am to 2 pm, 932 N Colorado St, Gilbert. Details Kids Day at PhxArt (free), Sun 11/15, 10 am to 2 pm, Phoenix Art Museum.

See all Valley events

The Valley by the numbers

ARMLS released its November STAT report Thursday with October's numbers:

October 2026 vs. a year ago Median sales price $440,000 down 2.2% Average sales price $613,903 up 4.7% Active listings 27,980 up 9.6% Closed sales down 17.2% Contracts (pending, UCB, CCBS) down 19.7% Months of supply 6.04 4.72 a year ago

Source: ARMLS STAT, November 2026

The two prices tell different stories.  Sales under $500,000 fell 14.5% from a year ago, while homes over $2 million made up a slightly bigger share of sales.  That pushes the average up even though the median price dropped.  ARMLS forecasts November's median at $435,000.

What this means for you.

Buyers: six months of supply means you have time and room to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing-cost help.

Sellers: more homes are competing for fewer buyers.  Price it right from day one and have your paperwork ready.

Small investors: the new Opportunity Zone map starts Jan. 1, 2027.  Talk to your tax advisor before year end if you have capital gains.

Friday mortgage talk

Freddie Mac's weekly survey on Thursday showed the 30-year average down to 7.11%.  That number is already behind.  Mortgage News Daily explained that Freddie's survey averages the five business days ending Wednesday, so it misses the swings after that.  By MND's count, rates are up about 0.25% since the last survey, to "the highest levels in more than 3 weeks."

The driver was Tuesday's hotter-than-expected inflation report.  As of Thursday, MND's daily index had the 30-year fixed at 7.42%, up 0.12% on the day.  FHA and VA were both around 7.00%.

For perspective, ARMLS says the 30-year fixed averaged 7.33% in October.  That's up from 6.25% a year ago and the highest monthly average in three years.

These are national averages, not a quote.  Your rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type, so call your lender for a real number.

Sources: Freddie Mac, Nov 12; Mortgage News Daily, Nov 12; ARMLS STAT, November 2026

What's your home worth right now?

With the median dipping and inventory up, it's a good month to know your number.  Get a free monthly home value snapshot.  It's an algorithm, not an appraisal, and I'm happy to sharpen it with a real market analysis anytime.

See my home value

From my week with clients

I'm helping a client get their home ready to sell, and this week a neighbor listed WAY low.  That's a gut punch when you're about to go on the market.  So we made a call, then went for a visit, and found the neighbor's home needs a LOT of work.  My client's home is turnkey.  That made a big difference in how they felt, and it gives us a clear story to tell buyers about value.

Beautiful new listing coming soon!

What I'm talking about: the appraisal report changed on Nov. 2

As of November 2, most conventional loans sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac need a new appraisal format called UAD 3.6.  You won't see that name in your paperwork, but it can change what your appraisal costs and how long it takes.  One mortgage broker told Mortgage Professional America in October he was quoted $555 for the old format and $850 for the new one.  Clear Capital reported a much smaller average bump, about $65.

What hasn't changed: if the appraisal comes in under your contract price, someone has to cover the gap.  On the Arizona purchase contract, a buyer has five days after notice of a low appraisal to cancel, and asking the appraiser to reconsider doesn't pause that clock.  Five days goes fast.  Especially over a weekend.

If you're selling, start your upgrade file now: roof age, HVAC year, permits, solar paperwork.  The new form wants details, and I don't want an appraiser guessing about your house.

Read the full post

New builds this week

Grand openings

Copper Ridge at Saddleback by David Weekley Homes, Peoria 85383 San Madera Discovery Collection by Taylor Morrison, Buckeye 85326 Portfolio at Bella Rosa by Richmond American, Phoenix 85041 Villas II by Camelot Homes, Scottsdale 85262, from $2,419,900 to $3,311,900

Featured communities

Seasons at Pradera III by Richmond American, Goodyear, from $439,995 to $499,995 Trovita at Citrus Park by Risewell Homes, Goodyear, from $437,990 to $559,070 White Tank Vistas by Mattamy Homes, Waddell, from $460,990 to $799,990 Wildflower at Blossom Rock by Brookfield Residential, Apache Junction, from $425,584 to $493,089

Quick move-in homes

17955 W Camino de Oro (Trinity plan) by Century Communities: 5 bed, 2.5 bath, $526,370 5832 S 35th Way (Alpharetta II plan) by K. Hovnanian Homes: 3 bed, 2.5 bath, $459,990 18370 E Silver Creek Ln (Prato plan) by Pulte Homes: 4 bed, 3.5 bath, $774,990

Builder rate promotions: Brookfield Residential is advertising rates as low as 2.99% at Highland Ridge at Alamar and as low as 5.49% at Wildflower at Blossom Rock.  Builder rate offers come with conditions, usually their lender and certain homes, so ask me for the details before you fall in love.

See them all on my new homes site

Don't forget to take me with you and let me register you before you visit a new build model home community or register on their site (feel free to browse mine though), so I can translate New Build contracts (8 zillion pages on an ipad isn't conducive to major research) represent you, have your back, get you the best perks and incentives and fight to make sure you get all agreed-upon items on time and on budget!

ADOT weekend freeway travel advisory, Nov. 13 to 16

Map: Arizona Department of Transportation

Southbound SR 51 closed between Northern and Highland avenues from 9 p.m. Friday to 5 a.m. Monday (Nov. 16) for pavement improvement project.  Southbound SR 51 on-ramps from 32nd Street to Bethany Home Road closed.  Detour: Consider using southbound 16th Street to Highland Avenue or Indian School Road to connect with SR 51. Westbound I-10 (Papago Freeway) closed between Loop 303 and Verrado Way from 9 p.m. Friday to 5 a.m. Monday (Nov. 16) for widening project.  Westbound I-10 on-ramps from Loop 303 to Jackrabbit Trail closed.  Detour: Consider using westbound Yuma Road to reconnect with westbound I-10. Westbound Loop 202 (Santan Freeway) closed between Williams Field and Gilbert roads from 9 p.m. Friday to 5 a.m. Monday (Nov. 16) for widening project.  Westbound Loop 202 on-ramps closed from Higley to Lindsay roads.  Detour: Consider using westbound Williams Field Road to Gilbert Road, or southbound Higley to Germann roads. Eastbound Loop 303 closed between 43rd Avenue and I-17 from 10 p.m. Friday to 5 a.m. Monday (Nov. 16) for bridge project.  Westbound Loop 303 restricted to one lane between I-17 and 43rd Avenue.  Detour: Consider using northbound 43rd Avenue to eastbound Dove Valley Road to connect to I-17. Northbound I-17 (Black Canyon Freeway) restricted to two lanes between Loop 101 and Pinnacle Peak Road from 10 p.m. Friday to 5 a.m. Monday (Nov. 16) for pavement improvement project.  Loop 101 eastbound and westbound ramps to northbound and southbound I-17 closed.  Detour: Consider taking 19th or 35th avenues northbound to Pinnacle Peak Road, or southbound to Union Hills Drive. Eastbound Loop 202 (Red Mountain Freeway) closed between SR 143 and Loop 101 from 2 a.m. to 6 p.m. Saturday (Nov. 14) for pavement improvement project.  Detour: Consider using southbound SR 143 to eastbound I-10 to eastbound US 60 to northbound Loop 101. Westbound Loop 202 (Red Mountain Freeway) closed between Loop 101 and Van Buren Street from 2 a.m. to 6 p.m. Sunday (Nov. 15) for pavement improvement project.  Detour: Consider using southbound Loop 101 to westbound US 60 to westbound I-10 to northbound SR 143. Northbound SR 347 restricted to one lane between the City of Maricopa and Casa Blanca Road from 8 p.m. Friday to 4 a.m. Saturday (Nov. 14) for improvement project.

Restriction schedules are subject to change due to inclement weather or other factors.  Real-time conditions: AZ511.gov, the az511 app, or call 511.

Full ADOT advisory

This week's real estate headlines

Arizona

Voters approve Prop 141. The measure bans mileage-based driving taxes.  It passed with about 51% of the vote, so road money will have to come from somewhere else as gas tax revenue shrinks.  (KJZZ, Nov 9) Read more Grocery taxes capped. Prop 316 bars cities from adding or raising a grocery tax without voter approval and caps it at 2%.  (azfamily, Nov 6) Read more Check that contractor's license. The Registrar of Contractors logged 313 contacts and 4 cease and desist orders in its October push.  A license is required on jobs over $1,000 or that need a permit, and only people who hire licensed contractors can use the state's recovery fund.  Look them up at roc.az.gov.  (AZBEX, Nov 9) Read more

Around the Valley

Shopping coming to Deer Valley and Black Mountain. Vestar bought about 20 acres at Deer Valley Rd and N. Black Mountain Blvd for $10.35 million and plans Black Mountain Village, a roughly 120,000 sq ft center.  (AZBEX, Nov 10) Read more Monogram Aerospace plans to more than double its Mesa plant. The company wants to add about 57,600 sq ft at 4250 E. Oasis St near Falcon Field.  (AZBEX, Nov 11) Read more West Valley industrial keeps moving. A 734,000 sq ft building at 303 Crossroads in Glendale sold for $109.5 million, and the Thunderbird 101 office park in Peoria sold for $19.7 million.  (AZBEX, Nov 10) Read more

National

Hot October inflation (up 0.4% for the month) makes a December 9 Fed rate hike look likely.  (Real Estate News, Nov 10) Read more 90% of buyers and 92% of sellers used an agent, the highest shares in about four decades.  (NAR via Real Estate News, Nov 11) Read more Assumable FHA and VA loans are getting a second look with rates above 7%.  (Real Estate News, Nov 9) Read more The new Opportunity Zone map takes effect Jan. 1, 2027.  (HousingWire, Nov 5) Read more

Let's talk

Call or text me at 480.818.9391.  My virtual assistant and office manager, Ruby, is at 623-255-4485.  Email Hello@DeDeForwood.com, or visit dedeforwood.com and heartofphx.com.

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Where do you want to live?  How do you want to live?

See you next Friday, DeDe

DeDe Forwood is a REALTOR® with HomeSmart, and this content follows the Fair Housing Act and the REALTOR® Code of Ethics. Nothing in this guide should be read as, or used for, steering based on race, color, religion, sex, national origin, familial status, or disability. Equal Housing Opportunity.